The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has significantly cut its forecast for 2025 home sales, citing persistent concerns among buyers over tariffs and interest rates.

In a major revision — CREA’s most substantial between-quarter adjustment since the 2008–2009 financial crisis — the association now predicts 482,673 residential property sales in 2025. This is almost unchanged from 2024 levels and represents a sharp downgrade from the 8.6% growth CREA had forecast in January.

“Uncertainty around tariffs has been the main driver behind the slowdown in home sales,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “What once looked like a sure-fire rebound year has turned into a scenario where simply maintaining momentum is a challenge.”

Data released Tuesday showed that March home sales dropped 9.3% compared to the same month last year, marking the weakest March since 2009. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales also fell 4.8% compared to February, continuing a downward trend that began last November — with total sales down 20% since that peak.

“The dominant trend right now is uncertainty,” commented Katy Mackenzie, a mortgage broker with The Mortgage Group in Vancouver. “Many buyers are hitting pause on their home search.”

While the national average home price ticked up 0.3% from February to March, it remains 3.7% lower than one year ago. CREA now expects the national average home price to fall 0.3% in 2025 to $687,898 — about $30,000 lower than its January projection. Average prices in British Columbia and Ontario are expected to dip slightly, whereas other provinces may experience gains of 3% to 5%.

Mackenzie noted that while lower prices could benefit first-time homebuyers by reducing the mortgage needed, they pose challenges for homeowners looking to downsize in retirement.

“The idea of selling for less is tough for many retirees,” she said.

The CREA report also highlighted a 3% increase in new home listings from February to March. However, with sales declining, the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped from 49.7% to 45.9%, the lowest since February 2009.

Mackenzie added that the market dynamics vary: some buyers face limited property options, while others encounter multiple-offer situations. Meanwhile, savvy investors are taking advantage of lower prices and more room for negotiation.

“Lower sales create more negotiation power for buyers,” she said.

Amid market instability, Mackenzie emphasized the importance of long-term planning.

“My advice is always: Do you have a plan? Can you afford it? Do you qualify? How will it fit your life three to five years down the road?” she said. “Having a broader plan helps you ride out short-term market changes with less worry.”

Canadian Real Estate Association downgrades sales forecast for 2025 as buyers remain wary - The Globe and Mail